Democracy. Russia. CIS.

Russia 2012 Predictions: An Update.

Posted by democratist on December 9, 2010

9th December 2010,

Some months ago Democratist made the prediction that,

“From Putin’s perspective then, given that he has the domestic situation pretty much wrapped up, the challenge is to leverage the forthcoming elections in order to achieve the somewhat contradictory goals of maintaining internal stability, encouraging growth, innovation and foreign investment (in what has become a tougher international climate), and improving Russia’s international position and military capabilities….One way of moving towards achieving at least some of these disparate and contradictory goals (as well as preparing a future path for the longer-term achievement of the others) would be to use the 2012 elections to gain the regime increased international legitimacy by enhancing the ongoing illusion of Russia’s “democratic development” through a poll that apparently offers more genuine political competition than was the case in recent times (although one in reality whose parameters have been carefully determined in advance…In line with the image of a “limited” democracy that Russia is now promoting for itself internationally,  Democratist suspects that the 2012 elections will present a superficial electoral choice between an emphasis on ”stability” or “modernization”; which is to say a choice between Putin or Medvedev.

At the time, even we thought that we might have indulged in a spot of crystal ball-gazing too far, and that we would soon have to bury the offending piece deep within our archives, in the hope it would soon be forgotten.
But not so quick with the shovel: On Tuesday, Vedmosti came out with the following quote, at the end of an article speculating that Putin will lend his name to the United Russia party ticket for elections next year;
“Interviewed while on the visit to Poland and asked if he intended to run for the president again, Medvedev announced that it was possible indeed since he always stood for continuity. “There are others, however… people who might participate in this political process too,” he said without giving any names.”
An odd statement. Medvedev evidently does not just mean that there will be other candidates for the Presidency (it’s kind of obvious). He means that there are others who actually stand a chance of winning who might participate.

Who could that be?

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